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Predicting Flares and Solar Energetic Particle Events: The FORSPEF Tool by A. Anastasiadis et al.*

10 Oct 2017, 11:03 UTC
Predicting Flares and Solar Energetic Particle Events: The FORSPEF Tool  by A. Anastasiadis et al.*
(200 words excerpt, click title or image to see full post)

A novel operational open-access forecasting system that provides reliable forecasting and nowcasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) events, as well as forecasting of solar flares (SFs) based on precursor information, is presented. FORSPEF offers continuous forecasts and nowcasts of SFs and SEP events, up to 70◦ E/W covering practically the entire course of an active-region (AR) toward the limb (up to ~85◦). The prediction window in the forecasting scheme is 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours, while the respective prediction time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and ranges between 15 – 20 minutes for solar flares and 6 hours for CMEs. All outputs are available online at http://tromos.space.noa.gr/forspef/ and can be freely accessed and used by the scientific community. The activity that led to FORSPEF tool was supported through the European Space Agency (ESA).
The FORSPEF Tool:
The FORSPEF tool consists of three modules that aim to forecast i) the likelihood of upcoming solar flare eruptions, ii) the occurrence of SEPs by making a prediction of the time before onset, and iii) the SEP characteristics for an upcoming event, respectively. Additionally, FORSPEF incorporates two operational modes, the forecasting and ...

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