Solar energetic particles (SEPs), especially protons and heavy ions, may be a space-weather hazard when they impact spacecraft and the terrestrial atmosphere. Forecasting schemes have been developed, which use earlier signatures of particle acceleration to predict the arrival of solar protons and ions in the space environment of the Earth.
The UMASEP (University of MAlaga Solar particle Event Predictor) scheme (Núñez 2011), forecasts the occurrence and the importance of an SEP event based on combined observations of soft X-rays, their time derivative and protons above 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit. We explore the possibility to replace the derivative of the soft X-ray time history with the microwave time history in the UMASEP scheme.
To this end we construct a continuous time series of observations for a 13-month period from December 2011 to December 2012 at two microwave frequencies, 4.995 and 8.8 GHz, using data from the four Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) patrol stations of the US Air Force, and feed this time series to the UMASEP prediction scheme.
During the selected period the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) detected nine SEP events related to activity in the western solar hemisphere. We show that the SEP forecasting using microwaves has ...