NASA Downplays Threat of Asteroid 2011 AG5 Impact in 2040

NASA released a workshop report today that downplays the risk to Earth of Asteroid 2011 AG5, saying that it "will fly safely past and not impact Earth in 2040." Asteroid 2011 AG5 is one of a subset of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) classified as Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs).
The agency acknowledges, however, that more observations are needed in the years ahead to be doubly sure that analysis is correct. A key event will occur -- or not -- in February 2023 when the asteroid is 1.1 million miles from Earth. If it passes through a very small "keyhole" in space at that time, Earth's gravity could be just enough to modify its trajectory such that an impact with Earth might be possible on February 5, 2040.
The keyhole is 227 miles wide. Lindley Johnson, program executive for NASA's Near Earth Object (NEO) observation program, said: "Given our current understanding of this asteroid's orbit, there is only a very remote chance of this keyhole passage even occurring."
Today's press release provides a link to a JPL website where four related documents are posted, including a "consensus summary" of the May 29, 2012 workshop. The links to the four documents are ...